Good afternoon. Following a rather uneventful start to the week despite all the NASS data on Monday, ag markets sprung to life on Tuesday with the soy complex (beans and oil) being the upside leader on further biofuel policy chatter. Ideas that a group coalition made up of members from both the oil and biofuel lobbies had come to an agreement on higher blending mandates led bean oil futures to one of their better days of the year, which in turn drug the soybeans higher also.

CK closed at 4.61 and 3/4 on Tuesday, up 4 and 1/2 cents. CN was up 5 at 4.68 and 1/4. SK finished at 10.34 and 1/4, up 19 and 1/2 cents. SN closed at 10.49 and 1/4, up 21 cents. Outside day higher for the beans. WK finished at 5.40 and 1/2, up 3 and 1/2 cents. Products were mixed, May soybean meal closed at 292.30, down 40 cents/ton, and May soybean oil closed at 47.44, up 2.55 cents/lb. The high for the day in May bean oil was 47.49. Another firmer day in the cattle markets on Tuesday, as April live cattle were up $1.32 at 209.12, and April feeders closed at 288.27, up $1.82; April hogs made new highs for the week early this morning but then rolled over and closed 35 cents lower at 87.37. Outside markets are trading mixed/lower, crude oil futures are down 20-30 cents/bbl ,the Dow Jones index is down 20 points, and the US$ index is trading near unchanged. The S&P500 is up 20 points and the NASDAQ is up 170 points. Gold futures are quietly lower, with the June contract making a new contract high overnight at $3,177.0.

Spreads were mixed/lower to end Tuesday, corn spreads were down 3 and 1/4 to up a penny, and soybean spreads were up 3 and 1/4 to down 2 and 1/4. CK/CN closed at -6 and 1/2, down a half cent, and SK/SN closed at -15, down a penny and a half.

Like we eluded to at the top, Tuesday action at the Board of Trade largely revolved around soybean oil, with spot futures being up more than 5.5% by the close of the day. Reuters reported at mid-morning this morning that a newly formed coalition comprised of oil and biofuel members would be meeting with the EPA on Tuesday to discuss higher federal mandates for biofuels, though no details of that meeting were available at the time of this writing. Sources familiar with the matter say the coalition is planning to push for mandates somewhere in the 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallon range for 2026-2028, which would be up from the previous mandated level of 3.35 billion gallons. On the ethanol side, sources say the coalition will be going forward with a 15 billion gallon mandate, despite efforts by some to get the level raised to 15.25 billion gallons. Regardless of the details, that there is talks and progress being made on some sort of biofuels mandate was taken as a big positive by the market, despite the fact that any actual legislation likely remains a ways off.

Other news in the biofuels sector for Tuesday included the USDA's post-market-close releases of both the fats and oils and grain crushing reports for February, which gave updated soybean and corn crush data. Starting with the fats and oils report, data showed that soybean crush in the month totaled 189 mil bu's, which was nearly right on trade expectations but down more than 10% from January's figure; the figure also compares to 193 million bushels in February of 2024, which had one extra day due to Leap Year. The report also showed soybean oil stocks data as of February 28th, which showed stocks of crude and once refined oil at 1.924 bil lbs; this was well below the average trade guess but still up 6% from last month's figure. Corn grind data from February in the grain crushing report showed corn used for ethanol in the month at 421 mil bu's, which was above trade expectations but down 10% from last month and down 5% from February of last year. Total corn consumption in the month was seen at 465 mil bu's, similarly down 10% from last month and down 6% from last year.

We have little new to add to the tariff discussion this afternoon, with it now largely being wait and see time until tomorrow, when President Trump is expected to unveil the details of much anticipated reciprocal tariffs sometime after 2pm central time. Grain markets will obviously be closed by this point, meaning the re-open Wednesday night going into Thursday could potentially see increased volatility. Its just hard to tell how immediate the reaction will be from other countries and also to what extent those reactions will impact US ag. Generally speaking, there continues to be more questions than answers at this point, which will hopefully begin changing tomorrow.

Weather news is mostly the same as yesterday for the US, as models continue to be in good agreement on possibly severe weather through the southern/south-central part of the country through the day tomorrow and into Thursday; there will be areas that could possibly receive more than 10" of rainfall through Arkansas and into the southern parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana and then also into western Kentucky/Tennessee. A larger area outside of this expects to see a more general 0.5-2". Following the passing of this system, the models are forecasting one more shot of low pressure through the area before ridging returns to the west and allows flow to come more from the north, which will shut off the Gulf moisture flow; this has led to week two forecasts that are dry to very for almost all of the country for the week of April 9th-15th, and is largely unchanged from yesterday. Temperature forecasts see a few more days of cooler weather in the west before the afore mentioned ridge brings heat back to the area in the 5-10 and 10-15 day periods. In the east, temps will be on the cool side starting early next week, but are then seen returning to average/above average levels by April 10th/11th.

Also not a lot new in South America, as forecasts continue to show mostly drier conditions for Argentina through the rest of this week and into the weekend, while also seeing scattered moisture in southern Brazil and a drier pattern to the north and northeast through the same time period. Heat has continued to regress here which has allowed crop stress levels to stay relatively low, but it remains that additional moisture will be needed to achieve desired safrinha corn production between now and June. For Argentina, the drier outlook should allow for some harvest progress to occur, and is of little concern due to 30-day % of normal rainfall maps showing most of the country's ag regions either near normal or well above normal in terms of observed precip.