Commodities were mixed today on thinning volume. Bank of America's September global fund manager survey found that investors are now the most underweight on commodities since June 2017 and within equities are the most underweight on energy since December 2020.

Corn and soybeans found some underlying support during the session from dry U.S. and S. American weather. Conversely, wheat was slightly weaker as concerns regarding the conflict between Russia, Ukraine and NATO appears to be lessening to a degree. It was a quiet news day in the ag space, as fresh data was lacking. Macro headlines are expected to be a main focus this week with the conclusion of the Fed's September policy meeting tomorrow. 

CZ closed at $4.12 ½ today, up 1 ¾¢. CH was up 1 ½¢ at $4.30 ¾. SX closed at $10.06, up 1 ½¢. SF was up 1 ¼¢ at $10.24 ¾. WZ was down 2 ¾¢ at $5.75 ¾. Products were mixed, October soybean meal closed at $318.0, down $2.10/ton, and October soybean oil closed at $40.55, up 80 points. Livestock markets were firmer, October live cattle closed at $178.80, up $1.57 ½, October feeders were up $2.00 at $243.30, and October hogs closed at $81.775, up $1.85. Outside markets are mixed, with nearby crude oil futures up roughly $1.30/bbl, the Dow Jones index down roughly 99 points, and the US$ index is up roughly 160 points. The dollar turned around after August retail sales showed an increase of 0.1% when a decline of 0.3% was expected. August industrial production was up 0.8% compared to the predicted increase of 0.1%, and capacity utilization was 78.0%, a ½% better than estimates. The S&P500 is down roughly 43 points, and the NASDAQ is up approximately 30 points. 

The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates this week for the first time since March 2020 by either 0.25% or 0.50% with sentiment leaning a bit towards the latter. The Bank of England will hold its policy meeting Thursday. After cutting rates in August, the expectation is for the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee to maintain the base rate at 5.0%. The Bank of Japan will follow, holding its policy meeting on Friday. Traders look for the central bank to likely keep its short-term interest rate at the current 25 basis points. 

Spreads were mixed. Corn spreads finished the day ¾ of a cent lower to ¾ of a cent higher. Bean spreads were a ¼ cent lower to a ¼ cent higher. CZ/CH closed at -18 ¼, up a ¼ and SX/SF closed at -18 ¾, up ¼. 

Export news was quiet as there were no flash sales reported. The Chinese have been quiet to start the week as they celebrate their Mid-autumn holiday but should be back mid-week. Brazil's FOB bean premiums have been moving higher on dry conditions and potential planting delays. Weather in Brazil is getting a bit more concerning as hot and dry conditions have created fires in the sugar cane regions and are delaying the planting of early soybeans. AgRural is estimating that farmers in Brazil have planted 19% of their first crop corn in the center-south region. For reference, their first corn crop accounts for roughly 20% of Brazil's total corn production. 

Brazil is expected to expand its bean production area in 24/25 on continued improvement in both crush and export demand. Production expected to increase 13% to 166 MMT compared to 23/24. Corn production area expected to remain unchanged. Demand structure is expected to improve domestically (improved feed and fuel usage) as exports recede a bit due to domestic demand improvements.

International forecasts call for showers over the EU, E Ukraine, S Russia, S Brazilian, and SE Argentine grain areas next week. There are reports that La Nina will strengthen this fall, increasing chances for drier than normal conditions in 2025 for Argentina and S Brazil along with the U.S. Midwest. Domestically, high pressure is expected to keep the heart of the Cornbelt dry this week, with temperatures staying much warmer than normal through the end of the week and weekend, pushing crops toward maturity. This is good if you’re harvesting or drying out your crop but not if you’re looking for moisture to finish out the crop. The harvest pace is expected to gradually increase across the nation’s mid-section as the week progresses.