The overall commodity space closed mixed as we ended the trading day on Tuesday, grains had a rough day, experiencing new lows in corn, wheras feeder cattle futures made fresh all-time highs. Though no breaking news came to light on which to blame the action, traders cite a shift in market sentiment and where new money is being placed. The falling corn prices ease feedlot input costs and further drive bullish sentiment in the cattle board. Outside markets remain choppy, with eyes fixed to Trump's foreign trade policy and the Aug 1st deadline.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $3.98, down 5 1/2 cents
• December Corn (CZ): $4.14 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -16 1/4, up 1 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Subsoil moisture in Illinois for the week ending July 6th is listed at 56% adequate, down -4% from the prior week. Illinois trails behind Iowa at 73% adequate, and Indiana at 64%.

• Ethanol margins (cents/barrel) are estimated in the lower 20's in Nebraska, and upper teens in western Iowa.

• New crop corn futures traded new contract lows in the September, December, March and May on Tuesday.

Summary:

No new news came out today pushing the market lower, but lower we fell nonetheless. Our export program remains favorable, partially bolstered by a weaker US dollar, but with a looming large crop in Brazil and the United States, coupled with US yield estimates above trend keep a tight lid on any bullish sentiment. Friday's USDA report should provide more guidance as we work through the reproductive stages for key growing regions.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.20 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.17 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $270.9, down $1.50/ton
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 54.11, up 0.04 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): 3 3/4, down 7 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• X/Q/Q board crush last traded at 173.25, up 1.820 on the day.

• In a press conference on Tuesday bolstering the 'National Farm Security Act' state leaders and Ag secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted the need for the United States to limit the involvement of China in our farmland investments and agricultural supply chain. Hardly bullish news for farmers who hope to see more US export sales to China, though the rhetoric has gained bipartisan support throughout the country. 4% of US farmland is owned by foreign investors, 30% of which is owned by Canada.

Summary:

Much like corn, soybeans find it hard to sustain a rally falling again down the strip today. President Trump's trade negotiations leave much to be desired from a trade policy standpoint, despite deals with Vietnam last week. Strong crusher basis keeps the farmer hopeful, but with no new crop beans on the books with China, and the possibility of tariffs on other key Asian trade partners, flat price threatens optimism for a rally in the short term.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.47 3/4, down 3/4 cents.
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.65, down 1 3/4 cents.
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 3/4, up 1 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Sovecon raised its Russian wheat exports forecast for 2025/26 by 2.1 million metric tons on Tuesday, now forecasting 42.9 mmt. This increase reflects improvements in price competition on the world stage.

Summary:

The wheat board seems to have the same woes as the corn and bean boards. A heavy US crop in front of it with an overall lack of global competitiveness. In its favor, US mills are running harder than usual, boosting the domestic usage of wheat as the crop comes off. Wheat yields in most parts of the United States have been reported as very good, with minimal toxin issues at this time.

📰 In Other News

• Livestock markets continued their rally on Tuesday. August, feeder cattle futures hit a new all-time high at 319.45, before settling at 319.125.

• Despite the southern border reopening for cattle imports, the influx will be limited short term, keeping US feeder supplies tight. Cattle prices are expected to remain elevated into 2026.
• August live cattle: $219.975, up $4.075
• August feeder cattle: $319.125, up $5.4
• August lean hogs: $106.775, down $.325

• Outside markets were lower in softs and metals, energy markets are marginally higher.
• Crude oil futures: up $.47 at $68.40
• Stock index futures: Lower with the Dow down ~140 points. The Nasdaq is slightly higher at 22902 and S&P is trading down -4 at 6272.
• US $ Index: up .054 at 97.195.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

⚡ Short-term Forecast:

• Over the next 10 days temperatures are modeled to return closer to normal. Most of the warmth will be focused to the Western United States into mid-July

• Northwestern ridges look to keep rainfall sparse for the majority if the Ag belt in the short term. Precipitation opportunities are more prevalent in week 1 and in the Western US.

📆 Extended Forecast:

• Warmer trends for the midwest are expected 2 weeks out with scattered precip chances. By week 3, expect temperatures to finish out July warmer and slightly drier.