An unexpected jump in corn condition ratings yesterday afternoon led to mixed trading in the ag space on Tuesday, with prices here lower and soybean and wheat markets finishing the day in the green. Though lower, the day for corn could've been worse; new contract lows were scored early this morning, but both Sep and Dec futures ended up closing around 5 cents off them by the end of the day, as $4 held for the time being.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Corn (CU): $4.06, down 3 1/4 cents; new contract low at 4.00 1/4
• December Corn (CZ): $4.22, down 3 1/2 cents; new contract low at 4.16 1/2
• September/December Spread (CU/CZ): -16, up 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Private US ag consultancy StoneX on Tuesday raised their estimate of Brazil's total corn production from 134 MMTs previously to now 136.1 MMTs; in a comment, the group said a reduced summer harvest this year was the result of smaller planted area, which helped to raise national average yields.

• This afternoon's monthly grain crushings report for the month of May showed corn used for ethanol in the month at 449 mil bu, which was up 6% from April but down 1% from May of last year.

• Total corn usage in the month was seen at 501 mil bu, which is up 6% from April but down 2% from May of last year.

Summary:

Sell pressure was seen early in the session this morning as better than expected condition ratings and ongoing good weather forecasts pushed both the September and December contracts to new lows early on, before bargain buying emerged near the $4 level to bring things back towards the middle of their ranges by the end of the day. Reality is sinking in that we are running out of time for a weather issue to develop before pollination, which also added to the morning pressure.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• August Soybeans (SQ): $10.29 3/4, unchanged
• November Soybeans (SX): $10.27 1/4, up 1/4 cent
• August Soybean Meal (MQ): $273.70, down $2.10/ton; new contract low at 272.60
• August Soybean Oil (LQ): 53.66, up 1.01 cents/lb
• August/November Spread (SQ/SX): 2 1/2, down 1/4 cent; new contract low at 0

📋 Market Headlines:

• Bean oil futures traded to new highs for the week on news that the US Senate had voted to approve President Trump's tax bill; the Senate version of the bill in its text regarding 45Z eliminates foreign feedstocks from collecting tax credits, which is a positive for domestic soybean oil demand.

• Monthly biofuel feedstock usage, released yesterday by the EIA, showed soybean oil used for both biodiesel and renewable diesel in the month of April at 829 mil lbs, which compares to 832 mil last month and 1.07 bil lbs in April of 2024. Canola oil usage fell to 135 mil lbs from 234 mil in March, and UCO usage fell from 487 mil lbs in March to 445 mil lbs.

• USDA pegged May US soybean crush at 204 million bu in this afternoon's update, which compares to 202 mil bu in April and 192 mil bu in May of last year.

• Report also showed US soybean oil stocks as of May 31 at 1.876 bil lbs, which was down just over 5% from April and down more than 14% from May of last year.

Summary:

Headlines regarding the Senate's approval of President Trump's tax bill were the main story in the soy complex on Tuesday, as the news lifted bean oil futures to gains of nearly 2% throughout today's session. Previous versions of the bill would've allowed fuels made from feedstocks sourced outside of North America eligible for up to 80% of the credit, while the new version that was approved says these feedstocks would not be eligible for any of the credit, which was a win for US producers.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• September Chicago Wheat (WU): $5.49, up 10 3/4 cents
• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.69 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents
• September/December Spread (WU/WZ): -20 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• Headlines in the wheat market were limited on Tuesday, with harvest progress continuing to steal most of the attention during the day. Yesterday's report showed a 52% increase in harvest progress in IL last week, while OK and MO both advanced 36% and KS advanced 33%.

Summary:

Quiet news day in the wheat market on Tuesday, as there wasn't a lot of new news surrounding the harvest in either the US or Europe. Export data from Ukraine for the 2024/25 marketing year showed wheat exports were down roughly 15% from last year, but this was near the USDA's forecast.

📰 In Other News

• Livestock markets saw lower trade on Tuesday:
• August live cattle: $210.75, down $3.12
• August feeder cattle: $306.02, down $4.65
• August lean hogs: $106.95, down 55 cents

• Outside markets continued to trade choppy on Tuesday, with Senate's tax bill approval generally lifting sentiments in the stock indices:
• Crude oil futures: up 40-60 cents/bbl
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 410 points, the S&P500 index is unchanged, and the NASDAQ is down 210 points
• US $ Index: down 10 points; new contract lows again in the Sep at 96.00

• President Trump this afternoon, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, said that he had no intentions of extending the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline, and that he also doubted there would be a completed deal with Japan before then.
• Progress has been stalled in talks with Japan recently over what Trump is their refusal to allow US wheat imports, despite the country currently experiencing a major shortage.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

⚡ Short-term Forecast:

• Forecasts were little changed in the last 24 hours, with little precip expected in the Corn Belt throughout the end of this week. Models show precip returning to the area next week, as southwest high pressure ridging will again allow ride-riding storm systems to sweep through the central US.

• Temperatures will gradually be seen warming back up in the eastern US the rest of the week this week and into the weekend, with highs in the lower 90's expected for most of the area by the end of the week after a day or two of cooler temps mid-week.

📆 Extended Forecast:

• Precip maps for week two are also similar to what was seen yesterday, and continue to show average to above average precip potential throughout the eastern Corn Belt into mid-July. Dryness in the western/west-central plains should also not be a huge negative, as this will aid in wheat harvest progress.

• Extended temperature forecasts continue to keep any extreme heat confined to the western US and further north in Canada over the next two weeks, while the Midwest sees a just about equal amount of days above and below average.