CBOT ag markets saw mixed trade to start the new week this week on Monday, with a further advancement of corn harvest leading futures here to close on their lows for the day, while soybean traders were unsure of whether to be bullish or bearish the weekend Trump/China news from over the weekend, which led to mixed trade throughout the day with slightly higher closes. With tensions between the two sides yet again seeming to take another step higher, we see headline risk as likely to remain elevated through the week this week; in fact, one noted analyst this afternoon predicted spot soybean futures could drop 30-50 cents should news of a canceled meeting hit the wires, illustrating the possible risk that currently exists.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.10 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.27 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -16 1/2, down 1/2 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Though there will be no crop progress update again this afternoon, traders and analysts estimate harvest progress has likely reached somewhere around 45% through the weekend, which if accurate, would match last year and would also continue to be ahead of the five-year average; the range of guesses is seen from 35% to 55%.

• Privat ag analyst APK Inform said late last week that they now see Ukraine's corn production at 30.3 MMTs in the current season, which is down from a previous estimate of 30.8 MMTs, while exports were seen at 24.5 MMTs; these figures compare to the USDA at 32 and 25.5 MMTs respectively.

Summary:

Corn futures saw another quiet day of trade to start the week on Monday, as news aside from harvest progress continues to be slow. We have little new to report on the yield front from the past several days, with producers continuing to still report yields that are down some 5-10% from last year; final yield is likely below where the USDA is at currently, but will probably still be a new all-time record and will do little alter to the current high-supply situation. Otherwise, the China news is the other dominant feature in the market this week, but aside from the proverbial rising tide lifting all boats, does little to the corn market from a supply and demand standpoint.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.07 3/4, up 1 cent; inside day higher
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.25 1/4, up 2 cents; inside day higher
• December Soybean Meal (MZ): $274.10, down 90 cents/ton
• December Soybean Oil (LZ): 50.60, up 0.63 cents/lb; inside day higher
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -17 1/2, down 1 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Fox New this morning that the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea at the end of the month was still on the schedule and confirmed that the two sides had "significant conversation" over the weekend.

• Chinese customs data for the month of September showed the country's soybean imports in the month at 12.87 MMTs, which is up from 12.28 MMTs in August and compares to 11.37 MMTs in the same month last year; this was also a new record for the month and the second highest figure ever for any month. Cumulative 2025 imports are now seen at 86.18 MMTs, which is up more than 5% from the same period last year.

• CONAB is expected to show 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil slightly higher than preliminary estimates in its first new crop update of the season, with the average trade guesses having production at 179.0 MMTs and planted area at 49.1 million hectares; both would be up from the 2024/25 season.

• According to Reuters, traders see soybean harvest as of Sunday at 58% complete, while the range of guesses ranged from 52% to 70% complete; there will be no actual report this afternoon due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Summary:

Soybean futures saw a minor 'dead-cat-bounce' to start the week on Monday following the lashing received from the China news going home on Friday. It seemed that while traders were reluctant to further press the downside on signs of optimism over the weekend, these signs weren't great enough to completely erase the drop seen last week, as there also didn't appear to be a lot of interest in buying those short positions back today either. As the situation seemingly continues to deteriorate on the margins, we see traders as likely taking a "we're going to go short assuming it falls apart and make you prove us wrong" approach to the ordeal over the next couple weeks and into month end. Price direction outside of the $10-10.50 trading range futures have been in mostly since the start of August is almost entirely dependent on whether Trump is able to make any headway with the Chinese, as South American is non-threatening and is providing the markets with little input at this point.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $4.96 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; new contract low at 4.94 1/2
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.13 1/4, down 2 cents; new contract low at 5.11 1/4
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -16 1/2, up 1/4 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• Analysts see winter wheat planting progress at 66% complete as of Sunday, with the range of guesses being from 61% to 75%.

• Private ag analyst APK Inform also said they see wheat production in Ukraine now at 22.4 MMTs, which is up 0.5 MMTs from a previous estimate and compares to the USDA at 23 MMTs.

Summary:

Wheat markets were quietly lower coming out of the weekend, as a further slippage in world values kept futures at the Board of Trade under pressure for most of the day and also caused another new round of new contract lows. Like corn, the China news does little in terms of wheat fundamentals and the only possible effect here will be if prices in the soybean complex can make a big enough move in one direction or the other to pull grain values along with them. Otherwise, this week looks to be more of the same from a fundamental standpoint, with world markets and harvest/crops in the Black Sea region and Europe continuing to dominate most of the daily price discovery.

📰 In Other News

• Livestock markets saw higher trade across the board to start the week this week:
• December live cattle: $244.75, up $2.22; new contract high at 245.12
• November feeder cattle: $376.72, up 82 cents; new contract high at $378.45
• December lean hogs: $84.85, up 82 cents

• Outside markets saw recovery action throughout the day on Monday following the Friday sell-off:
• Crude oil futures: up 80-90 cents/bbl; inside day higher
• Stock index futures: The Dow Jones index is up 580 points, the S&P500 index is up 100 points, and the NASDAQ is up 520 points; inside day higher for all three
• US $ Index: up 20-30 points; also inside day higher

🌦️ Weather Outlook

⚡ Short-term Forecast:

• Weather for the Midwest this week will be a bit of a mixed bag, with areas in the eastern Midwest continuing to see mostly dry conditions with temperatures near to above average, while areas to the west will see near-daily light rainfall chances, while temperatures will be below average early this week before warming into the end of the week.

• Rainfall totals in the west through the end of the day on Friday will generally only amount to a tenth or two, though there are chances at some slightly heavier totals further to the north into Canada where up to an inch is possible.

📆 Extended Forecast:

• Extended range precip forecasts coming out of the weekend show good moisture flow potential across the northern part of the US, but are drier through the central and southern parts of the Corn Belt than was seen last week. A pattern shift still seems likely into the end of the month, but the models see flow staying more out of the northwest this morning than the southwest that was seen last week.

• Temperature outlooks into the end of the month are a bit warmer than was seen to end the week last week in the east, though are little changed in the west where temps are expected to stay quite a bit cooler than normal. The GFS has the warmth slightly further west than the EU does, but both see the coldest air in relation to average being west of the Rockies.

🗺️ South America Forecast:

• The eastern half of Argentina looks to see rainfall of around 1-2" from a weekend storm system, while there also continues to be good model agreement on rains returning to most of Brazil's growing regions by early next week. The mid-day run from the GFS forecast this afternoon is wetter in southern Brazil and northern Argentina towards the end of next week and into the week following, but is otherwise unchanged from previous runs this week.

• The coming rains will cool temperatures off a bit throughout Brazil, with the models showing average to slightly below average temperature anomalies through most of the growing regions here through the week next week. Argentina, meanwhile, looks to see closer to average temperatures in the east of the country, while the west is seen slightly above average.